USA Hi-Tech Stock Bubble

Stock Bubble Timeline & Analysis

Market Analysis Video

📝 Video Transcript (English)

⚠️ Warning: Don't Trust the Financial System

The economy is not doing well, but assets are expensive - extremely expensive, everything. Denmark's central bank has warned citizens not to trust only one financial system. Don't rely solely on online banking - withdraw some cash and keep it at home in case any crisis occurs.

🎈 Everything Bubble Era

We're in an era called 'everything bubble' - we're living in a world where everything is a bubble. And if this bubble bursts, it will be the worst crisis we've ever faced.

📊 Historical Comparison

1965 EEC Crisis: Stock market crash in Europe
1999-2000 Dot-com Bubble: Peaked in 1999, crashed in 2000
2025 Current: Higher than dot-com bubble - officially higher than everything

🏠 Double Bubble: Stocks + Real Estate

The Subprime Crisis was caused by real estate bubbling first, then dragging stocks down. But this time, BOTH are bubbles simultaneously - stock market AND real estate.

📈 Valuation Metrics (Extremely Overvalued)

Price-to-Book-Value: 5.3x (vs dot-com bubble 5.1x)
P/E Ratios: One-third of S&P 500 companies exceed 50x P/E
Extreme Examples: Tesla and others at 180-270x P/E
NVIDIA Alone: $4 trillion market cap = 3.7% of global GDP

💰 Smart Money vs Dumb Money

Smart Money (institutional investors) is called money from large financial institutions. Dumb Money is retail investors - ordinary citizens. Currently, the top 200 insider buyers have 0/200 buy orders. Zero insiders are buying right now. This is an extremely strange and concerning signal.

🔴 The Four Phases Before a Crash

Phase 1 - Stealth: Only insiders know and accumulate quietly (like Tulip Mania in Netherlands)
Phase 2 - Awareness: Whispers spread - "Hey, invest in this and get rich"
Phase 3 - GREED/FOMO: Everyone joins, prices soar - "Whoever enters now gets rich!" (WE ARE HERE)
Phase 4 - Black/Distribution: Smart Money exits, dumps assets

⚡ No Warning Before Crash

Past crises had no warning alarms. You wake up and everything's crashed. Before it happens, there are signs, but when it actually happens, there will be some trigger moment - sometimes not even a big one, maybe just a small trigger.

🥇 Final Advice

Don't trust the fiat money financial system too much. Precious metals that you can touch - you need to have some of those as a hedge.

Source: Sai Money Monster Channel (Translated from Thai)

Analysis & News 2025

The Tech Bubble Warning Signs

Analysis of current market conditions compared to the 2000 dot-com bubble. Experts warn of overvaluation in AI and tech sectors.

Historical Context

Understanding the patterns that led to the 2000 crash can help investors make informed decisions today.

Market Indicators

P/E ratios, market cap to GDP, and other key metrics showing similarities to pre-2000 levels.

Events That Could Burst the 2025 Bubble

🤖 AI Stock Collapse

📉

NVIDIA Correction

Risk: P/E ratio over 60, trading at $800+

Trigger: Earnings miss, chip demand slowdown, or China export restrictions

Impact: Could drop 40-60% like 2000 tech stocks

🚨

AI Startup Valuations

Risk: Many AI companies trading at 20x revenue with no profits

Trigger: Failed monetization, ChatGPT competitors fail

Impact: 90% crash similar to Pets.com, Webvan

🏠 Real Estate Crisis

🏢

Commercial Real Estate Collapse

Risk: Office vacancy rates 30-40% post-COVID

Trigger: Major defaults, bank exposure to CRE loans

Impact: Regional bank failures, credit crunch

🏘️

Residential Housing Bubble

Risk: Home prices up 40% since 2020, affordability crisis

Trigger: High mortgage rates (7%+), foreclosures rise

Impact: 2008-style housing crash redux

💰 Financial Assets Crisis

📜

Bond Market Crash

Risk: US debt $35 trillion, 10-year yield volatile

Trigger: Fed loses control, inflation resurges

Impact: Flight from bonds, interest rates spike to 8-10%

💵

Dollar Collapse

Risk: BRICS dedollarization, China dumps treasuries

Trigger: Loss of reserve currency status

Impact: Hyperinflation, import prices soar

₿

Bitcoin & Crypto Crash

Risk: Bitcoin at $100K, extreme leverage

Trigger: Major exchange hack, regulatory crackdown

Impact: 80-90% crash like 2018, $10K Bitcoin

🥇

Gold Safe Haven

Scenario: Gold may surge as everything else crashes

Target: $3,000-$5,000/oz if panic selling hits

Risk: Even gold dropped 30% in March 2020 crash

Investment Vocabulary Guide

📊 P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings)

Definition: The ratio of a company's share price to its earnings per share.

Formula: Stock Price ÷ Earnings Per Share

Example: If a stock trades at $100 and earnings are $5/share, P/E = 20

High P/E ratios (>30) may indicate overvaluation or bubble conditions

During Dot-Com Bubble: Many tech stocks had P/E ratios over 100, or even negative earnings!

📈 NASDAQ Composite

Definition: A stock market index of over 3,000 stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange, heavily weighted toward technology companies.

Key Facts:

Created in 1971, first electronic stock market
Includes major tech giants: Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon
More volatile than Dow Jones due to tech concentration

Historical Context: Rose 400% from 1995-2000, then crashed 78% by 2002

🤖 Top 10 AI Stocks (2025)

NVIDIA (NVDA) - AI chip leader
Microsoft (MSFT) - Azure AI & OpenAI partner
Alphabet (GOOGL) - Google AI & DeepMind
Amazon (AMZN) - AWS AI services
Meta (META) - AI research & LLaMA
Tesla (TSLA) - Autonomous driving AI
AMD (AMD) - AI processors
Palantir (PLTR) - AI data analytics
C3.ai (AI) - Enterprise AI
Snowflake (SNOW) - AI data platform

Combined market cap exceeds $10 trillion in 2025

💰 Smart Money

Definition: Capital controlled by institutional investors, central banks, fund managers, and financial professionals.

Who are they?

Hedge funds (e.g., Bridgewater, Renaissance)
Investment banks (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley)
Pension funds and endowments
Venture capital firms

Smart Money Indicators:

Insider selling: Executives selling their own stock
Institutional outflows: Big funds reducing positions
VIX spike: Volatility index rising
Inverse P/E trends: High valuations with slowing growth

When smart money exits but retail investors keep buying, bubbles often form

💹 Market Cap to GDP Ratio

Definition: Total stock market value divided by Gross Domestic Product. Also known as the "Buffett Indicator."

Formula: Total Market Capitalization ÷ GDP × 100

Interpretation:

Below 80%: Undervalued market
80-100%: Fair value
100-120%: Overvalued
Above 150%: Severe bubble territory

2000 peak: 145% | 2025: Approaching 180%

🎯 Bubble Characteristics

Common Warning Signs:

Irrational Exuberance: Excessive optimism, "this time is different" mentality
FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): Retail investors rushing in late
Easy Credit: Low interest rates, easy access to leverage
New Paradigm Claims: "Old valuation methods don't apply"
Media Hype: Constant positive coverage, stock tips everywhere
IPO Mania: Companies going public with no profits

2000 vs 2025 Parallels:

2000: ".com" suffix | 2025: "AI" branding
2000: "Eyeballs" metrics | 2025: "GPU hours" metrics
2000: Pets.com | 2025: Overvalued AI startups

About This Project

This interactive platform tracks the parallels between the 2000 dot-com bubble and current market conditions in the tech sector, particularly focusing on AI and high-tech stocks.

How the Points System Works

You start with 10,000 points
Every 10 minutes, 10 points are deducted (symbolizing market volatility)
Share your points or transfer them via QR code
Track your points history and compare with others

About the USA Hi-Tech Stock Bubble

The dot-com bubble was a historic speculative bubble in the late 1990s, marked by excessive speculation in Internet-related companies. Between 1995 and 2000, the NASDAQ Composite stock market index rose 400%, only to crash and lose 78% of its value by 2002.

Key Characteristics:

Irrational Exuberance: Investors poured money into any company with a .com suffix
No Profit Models: Companies went public without viable business plans
Easy Money: Venture capital flowed freely with minimal due diligence
Market Psychology: Fear of missing out (FOMO) drove valuations to absurd levels

Today's Parallels:

Many analysts draw comparisons between the dot-com bubble and current AI/tech valuations, citing similar patterns of speculation, high P/E ratios, and investor enthusiasm without corresponding fundamentals.

Your Points

USA Hi-Tech Stock Bubble Analysis

10,000